 US | TRENDS |
|
|
|
Analyzing feedback on social networks is Hollywood's newest way of predicting big movies' box-office results. An idea that might seem farfetched at first, is clearly not...
|
In this new era, with social networks and social TV taking over the internet, Hollywood has found a new way of predicting the success -or failure- of their upcoming premieres, thus possibly changing experts' estimations ahead of the highly anticipated opening weekends: tweets, posts and social network mentions are taking center stage.
The amount of comments, different opinions and the speed in which certain videos go viral are some of the variables companies are taking into consideration, determining the approximate box-office results ahead of the movies' opening weekends.
|
|
|
|
The idea might seem inaccurate and even a little crazy, it's really not. In fact, this methodology is proving to be quite accurate and is already being used by major studios, as well as certain media outlets.
"Fort he latest installment of the Twilight saga we predicted it would raise US$ 140 million and it reached 138.5," said Ben Carlson, co-founder of Fizziology, which uses this very type of tool.
"The world is turning… why are you asking people for their opinions when they are offering them voluntarily on social media?" said Carlson to The Financial Times.
Despite it being accurate, it's not exact. Fizziology had estimated The Avengers would raise between US$ 135 and 150 million, and it ended up reaching the 207 million dollar mark. Still, the analysis might go two ways: the company predicted US$ 50 million less, it's true, yet its results made The Avengers the movie with the highest grossing opening weekend in US history, something impossible to predict.
THE POWER OF SOCIAL NETWORKS
In addition to helping forecast results, social networks can lead movies and TV series to unexpected success… or incredible failure.
Several members of the Cass Business School in London analyzed close to 4 million tweets related to different movies and determined they can either help promote or help ruin a movies' opening day.
According to their analysis, there's a direct influence between those who go watch the movie that Friday and those who decide to go the next day.
"We found that sentiment spread via Twitter immediately after a new movie’s release systematically influences other consumers' decisions about whether to attend a screening… during the remainder of its opening weekend," said Caroline Wiertz, who co-wrote the report.
Therefore, they managed to produce a mathematical formula: the smaller the ratio between positive and negative tweets, the higher the possibility of a bad second day box-office performance.
For instance, with the 2010 remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street, (2.5 to one ratio of positive to negative tweets) the box-office declined 50% after its first night.
The power of social networks is increasing, and it affects more than just the box-office. Users are becoming more important, and major studios and TV networks must start listening to what they have to say. As stated by the Cass Business school: once the product is on the market, "there's nothing they can do to counteract negative buzz on Twitter."
|
|
 |
|
Where Everything Grows
